alt Hacker NewsThe Singularity will occur on a Tuesday
Comments
This is a very interesting read, but I wonder if anyone has actually any ideas on how to stop this from going south? If the trends described continue, the world will become a much worse place in a few years time.
The Singularity as a cultural phenomenon (rather than some future event that may or may not happen or even be possible) is proof that Weber didn't know what he was talking about. Modern (and post-modern) society isn't disenchanted, the window dressing has just changed
I hope in the afternoon, the plumber is coming in the morning between 7 and 12, and it’s really difficult to pin those guys to a date
The thing that stands out on that animated graph is that the generated code far outpaces the other metrics. In the current agent driven development hypepocalypse that seems about right - but I would expect it to lag rather than lead.
*edit* - seems inline with what the author is saying :)
> The data says: machines are improving at a constant rate. Humans are freaking out about it at an accelerating rate that accelerates its own acceleration.
Don't worry about the future
Or worry, but know that worrying
Is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing Bubble gum
The real troubles in your life
Are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind
The kind that blindsides you at 4 p.m. on some idle Tuesday
- Everybody's free (to wear sunscreen)
Baz Luhrmann
(or maybe Mary Schmich)The Roman Empire took 400 years to collapse, but in San Francisco they know the singularity will occur on (next) Tuesday.
The answer to the meaning of life is 42, by the way :)
Love the title. Yeah, agents need to experiment in the real world to build knowledge beyond what humans have acquired. That will slow the bastards down.
But what does Opus 4.6 say about this?
"Everyone in San Francisco is talking about the singularity" - I'm in SF and not talking about it ;)
This is gold.
Meta-spoiler (you may not want to read this before the article): You really need to read beyond the first third or so to get what it’s really ‘about’. It’s not about an AI singularity, not really. And it’s both serious and satirical at the same time - like all the best satire is.
> Tuesday, July 18, 2034
4 years early for the Y2K38 bug.
Is it coincidence or Roko's Basilisk who has intervened to start the curve early?
> already exerting gravitational force on everything it touches.
So, "Falling of the night" ?
Once MRR becomes a priority over investment rounds that tokens/$ will notch down and flatten substantially.
A hyperbolic curve doesn't have an underlying meaning modeling a process beyond being a curve which goes vertical at a chosen point. It's a bad curve to fit to a process. Exponentials make sense to model a compounding or self-improving process.
I've never been Poe's lawed harder in my life.
Guys, yesterday I spent some time convincing an LLM model from a leading provider that 2 cards plus 2 cards is 4 cards which is one short of a flush. I think we are not too close to a singularity, as it stands.
What about the rate of articles about the singularity as a metric of the singularity?
Just in time for Bitcoin halving to go below 1 BTC
This is a delightful reverse turkey graph (each day before Thanksgiving, the turkey has increasing confidence).
Most obviously AI-written post I think I’ve seen.
Have some personal pride, dude. This is literally a post written by AI hyping up AI and posted to a personal blog as if it were somebody’s personal musings. More slop is just what we need.
Wait is that photo of earth the legendary Globus Polski? (https://www.ceneo.pl/59475374)
lols and unhinged predictions aside, why are there communities excited about a singularity? Doesn't it imply the extinction of humanity?
This is great. Now we won’t have to fix y2K36 bugs.
That would be 8 years after math + humor peaked in an article about singularity
> I am aware this is unhinged. We're doing it anyway.
If one is looking for a quote that describes today's tech industry perfectly, that would be it.
Also using the MMLU as a metric in 2026 is truly unhinged.
Today is tuesday
We need contingency plans. Most waves of automation have come in S-curves, where they eventually hit diminishing returns. This time might be different, and we should be prepared for it to happen. But we should also be prepared for it not to happen.
No one has figured out a way to run a society where able bodied adults don't have to work, whether capitalist, socialist, or any variation. I look around and there seems to still be plenty of work to do that we either cannot or should not automate, in education, healthcare, arts (should not) or trades, R&D for the remaining unsolved problems (cannot yet). Many people seem to want to live as though we already live in a post scarcity world when we don't yet.
This assumes humanity can make it to 2034 without destroying itself some other way…
Yes, the mathematical assumptions are a bit suspect. Keep reading. It will make sense later.
Wow what a fun read
Thanks, added to calendar.
> The labor market isn't adjusting. It's snapping. In 2025, 1.1 million layoffs were announced. Only the sixth time that threshold has been breached since 1993.
Bad analysis! Layoffs are flat as a board.
> Hyperbolic growth is what happens when the thing that's growing accelerates its own growth.
Eh? No, that's literally the definition of exponential growth. d/dx e^x = e^x
> Polynomial growth (t^n) never reaches infinity at finite time. You could wait until heat death and t^47 would still be finite. Polynomials are for people who think AGI is "decades away."
> Exponential growth reaches infinity at t=∞. Technically a singularity, but an infinitely patient one. Moore's Law was exponential. We are no longer on Moore's Law.
Huh? I don't get it. e^t would also still be finite at heat death.
Will.. will it be televised ?
Damn. I had plans.
> Real data. Real model. Real date!
Arrested Development?
This is what I come here for. Terrific.
Why the plutocrats believe that the entity emerging from the singularity will side with them? Really curious
End of the World? Must be Tuesday.
Prior work with the same vibe: https://xkcd.com/1007/
Who will purchase the goods and services if most people loose jobs ? Also who will pay for ad dollars what are supposed to sustain these AI business models if there no human consumers ?
2034? That's the longest timeline prediction I've seen for a while. I guess I should file my taxes this year after all.
I am not convinced that memoryless large models are sufficient for AGI. I think some intrinsic neural memory allowing effective lifelong learning is required. This requires a lot more hardware and energy than for throwaway predictions.
What I want to know is how bitcoin going full tulip and Open AI going bankrupt will affect the projection. Can they extrapolate that? Extrapolation of those two event dates would be sufficient, regardless of effect on a potential singularity.
> The labor market isn't adjusting. It's snapping.
I’m going to lose it the day this becomes vernacular.