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ksectoday at 5:37 PM2 repliesview on HN

It is one of the thing with consumer when they remember they brought it at the absolutely lowest price point when DRAM maker were bleeding money.

Those are not normal pricing. Before the pricing collapse in early 2020, 96GB DDR5 would have cost about $450 to $500. And I will need to restate again the cost of DRAM hasn't really changed much in the past 20 years. Its price just goes up and down in cycles.

So in reality it is more like going from $500 to $1300. But consumer felt it was more like going from $200 to $1300.

Crucial are already selling DRAM made by CXMT. And China are already throwing money at it. I doubt the memory bubble will burst in next 12-24 months. As in going back to money losing DRAM pricing. As they will all pivot to HBM or other money making products. But the bulk of lower end consumer DDR5 or LPDDR5 will goes to Chinese Foundry. Assuming they have figure out how to do them well. Which they have improved but are still so far away from industry leaders.

Normally memory maker will push the next DDR standard to market just to push out Chinese competitors, I am not sure it will work the same this time around. DDR5 have plenty of other usage / demands.


Replies

cogman10today at 7:07 PM

> Its price just goes up and down in cycles.

Historically the price has always trended downward. When I first got into computing $200 could buy you 128 MB (yes M) of ram. Really nice systems had 512 MB.

That's obviously changed over the decades as process shrinks have lead to higher memory density. We should generally expect that ram will cheaper up and until the point where process shrinks stop happening. They've definitely slowed, but they haven't stopped.

DoctorOetkertoday at 5:42 PM

> Crucial are already selling DRAM made by CXMT.

Crucial was disestablished this year.

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