alt Hacker NewsAnthropic S-1
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What incentive do they have to implement the large token/cost savings model architectures like Jev have introduced? Doesn't the impact Jev/Decisions models have had imply an inefficiency in the business models here?
They didn't use AI to write the prospectus...
AI = Artificial Income
What's preventing me from feeding this into Claude and reconstructing the company for $200?
I'm unironically doing this right now; downloaded the docs (htm + pdf render) to a local repo and running Opus 5.5 @ max effort with the prompt:
"In this directory you can find Anthropics official S-1 filing, read it and replicate their corporate strategy, validate it via an adversarial subagent swarm and write up a detailed corporate plan for a startup copying their exact strategy. The goal is to achieve a $1 trillion valuation and an IPO in 5 years."
I’d rather buy Amazon and Google, get exposure to them through there
For all things good and holy, DO NOT purchase shares until things settle down and by that I don't mean next month, or next year but atleast 2028, IF you're doing so with the intention of enjoying an uplift.
I know it sounds and feels like the only trajectory of this company is up but HN is an echo chamber of a tiny minority of the technical populace and 3 out of 5 people on the planet don't know what ChatGPT is.
If you have the ability to lose all the money and can time the extreme volatility, have fun, but don't put anything you're going to rely on.
This is also one of the companies we will look back at 2046 and wonder what we were thinking.
What does it mean in practice for the retail users of Claude?
if i read the s-1 correctly - at current burn rates if anthropic doesn't raise additional money - they go poof in 2 years ?
losses vs assets at hand.
Has all the retail AI money been put into spaceX? If so, will they pull from spaceX and put into ant?
Why are commitments treated as if they are sure things? I can easily see these things getting cancelled. What is it I am missing here?
Setting the pace and pacing the frontier ™
shameless plug, get a properly paginated PDF here: https://enopdf.com/tools/edgar-to-pdf/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww...
What happens if You lie in this form ? It there is líes how we can detect them? Is there a wait or someone from goverment audits this ?
$ANT ticker, it would have been funnier if it was $CLAUD
Good ol' 2008 looks like it's gonna swing back with vengeance real soon now....
> Additionally, open-weight or open-source AI models may capture a portion of the market for certain use cases, which could exert pricing pressure on our offerings or lead certain customers to adopt open-source alternatives for those use cases.
“A portion of the market for certain use cases” meanwhile the top 5 models by token consumption on the day this is posted are all Chinese/open weight models.
They must be joking with this part:
"Before starting the IPO process, we spoke to many business leaders who had gone through a similar process in the past. One piece of advice, which we heard in slightly different forms from multiple people, stuck with us: never let your company be worth a dollar more than it is actually worth. What they meant is that it is very dangerous when people buy your company's stock based on expectations you cannot fulfill or on incorrect predictions about how you will behave. This is in fact very similar to one of Anthropic's guiding principles: underpromise and overdeliver."
From someone else describing the situation you'd be in buying this stock:
> If I buy Anthropic now at $2T valuation and they go to zero, I'm fucked, but if they go to $20T, we're all fucked.
We are nearing the final stages of the AI hype cycle and this IPO will cause the acceleration of the crash.
"AGI" was never mentioned once and it was you being the exit liquidity for the insiders and early investors.
This might be one of the most consequential S-1s in the next decade. There's a part of me that's terrified, like we're on the precipice of financial or societal collapse. I suppose that could be a sign of the times.
Am I missing the TAM in here like we saw in SpaceX's S-1?
Super shares yet again. Pass.
Plus they get to dilute as value rises lol.
Does it note a risk their technology exterminates the entire human race, as they been shilling.
I wonder if OpenAI will release theirs soon. It seems very important to be the first one to IPO
Does this make it less likely that Anthropic will push for regulations?
The word "Oracle" isn't present in the document.
This make me wonder how did XAI reach so much revenue so fast!
The revenue growth rate is quite shocking. Their two worst quarters were Q425 and Q326 where they grew 47% and 45%. Other than those two, they've been growing >100% QoQ for two years. This company is about to list with some of the greatest revenue growth in the history of shareholder capitalism. I wasn't planning on investing before, but I think learning this has changed my mind.
So you don't have to do the math, at a midline valuation of $1.7T, the Amodei's each will have about $25B. It mentions that they have pledged 80% of their stock to charity in a non-binding agreement.
Don't expect supersize profits from Anthropic anytime soon.
Excellent products, even world changing products does not mean shareholder returns in Anthropic’s case.
Even if Claude meets all of our wildest goals and earns trillions yearly there is absolutely no “guarantee” that any will flow to shareholders.
1. Shareholders do not have control of the company due to its structure. The Trust controls through class T shares. As a backup the founders control through class F shares.
2. Since the company is a PBC its board is allowed balance dividends with other social benefits as they see fit.
This means that even if Anthropic is wildly successful as shareholders have no general legal claim to compel the company to distribute those profits.
It is absurd that with a 2T IPO upcoming this is not front and center.
~400 pages.
How many folks use Claude to summarize.
I liked the pictures in the SpaceX S-1 filing much more
Can I get dividends as tokens?
Rather curious to know what is hiding in the 8.7B 'other expenses'.
Given that this is ~50% of revenue, it would have a huge bearing on how near real profitability Anthropic actually is.
Wild that this has 500+ points and 500+ comments less than one hour after posting, and it's #11 on the homepage. Guessing either the flamewar detector or lots of AI skeptics flagging it?
Im going to continue to use fast open source models like Deepseek and GLM, I like most others, have zero need for the worlds smartest person to be my assistant.
I dont understand this business model, it seems clearly unsustainable (at their prices). When people start to realize they dont need to spend all this money on turbo PhD intelligence so they can build react apps, Anthropic will be in a tough spot (if they already aren't).
You will say, "but enterprise!!" Nope, plenty of companies are waking up to this reality as well. It turns out that if you made money pre-AI without spending 5k a seat a month for your engineers dev tools, you probably don't need to now to continue too.
I think a company like Moonshot or Z.AI could have sabotaged this behind repair by doing a 10-20B IPO before Anthropic.
That could have popped the AI bubble right there.
> Second, AI can be a powerful lever for economic growth. As a general purpose technology, it has the potential to raise productivity across every sector of the economy. Productivity growth in advanced economies has stagnated in recent decades, partly for structural reasons and partly because new ideas seem to be harder to find. AI could reverse this trend.
Bloody hell!!!! Who comes up with such crap, seriously?
Is becoming a public company going to help or harm their mission of delivering safe AI?
SPXEW ftw
Can anyone ELI5 the Class T stock structure and the rights it has? It seems like it has the ability to govern itself, but other than that, not terribly a lot?