Too dumb.
Most exits in that range are where the exit is less than the capital raised, or a little more but where the last round raised was questionable and was done on terms that the minority shareholders may complain about but where they didn't have any other option - they were hosed no matter what.
I've seen hundreds of them. And it has little to do with size of position, it's where you sit in the preference stack. Anyone who thinks that early round investors should get a pay out on an exit no matter what just doesn't understand pretty basic finance.
"exit" != success, for anyone involved, usually.