Prediction: AI will become commoditized ~15 IQ points higher than the state of the art models today, and with larger context, within 4 years as the incremental improvements in training from synthetic data plateaus (we've already used all the "real" data out there) and open source models are cheaply trained on the outputs of the big money models. Then AI development stagnates until someone invents an effective way to use competitive reinforcement learning to train generalized intelligence (similar to how AlphaGo was trained), removing the need for vast quantities of training data. Then, we get real AGI.