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SubiculumCode12/10/20251 replyview on HN

Perhaps a new category, 'highest risk guess but right the most often'. Those is the high impact predictions.


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arjie12/10/2025

Prediction markets have pretty much obviated the need for these things. Rather than rely on "was that really a hot take?" you have a market system that rewards those with accurate hot takes. The massive fees and lock-up period discourage low-return bets.

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