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zesterertoday at 10:22 AM2 repliesview on HN

(they are all wrong)

A fun property of S-curves is that they look exactly like exponential curves until the midpoint. Projecting exponentials is definitionally absurd because exponential growth is impossible in the long term. It is far more important to study the carrying capacity limits that curtail exponential growth.


Replies

crthpltoday at 7:11 PM

1. you can definitely tell apart an S-curve and an exponential if you look at the derivative(s). AI progress does not seem to be close to the middle of the S-curve. 2. e.g.: a slowdown hasn't shown up in moore's law yet.

reducesufferingtoday at 6:15 PM

Covid was also an S curve...