The argument I usually hear is that you only truly get the 10x improvements with <new-model> (right now, Opus 4.5), so they've only had a few months, not years. In a few months, it'll turn out that <new-model> wasn't actually capable of that, but <new-new-model> is, and as that's not been out long its unfair to judge so early. And so the cycle begins anew
Very true. Look at the wikipedia article for "AI Winter" to see how old this cycle truly is...