By the time that happens, Opus 5 and GPT-5.5 will be out. At that point will a GPT-5.2 tier open-weights model feel "good enough"? Based on my experience with frontier models, once you get a taste of the latest and greatest it's very hard to go back to a less capable model, even if that less capable model would have been SOTA 9 months ago.

I'd be happy with something that's close or same as opus 4.5 that I can run locally, at reasonable (same) speed as claude cli, and at reasonable budget (within $10-30k).

Try KimiK2.5 and DeepSeekv3.2-Speciale

Just code it yourself, you might surprise yourself :)