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akstyesterday at 1:00 PM1 replyview on HN

In macroeconomic, you have an aggregate production functions that represents output for a country or something. In many of these function you'll have a parameter for technology, it acts as a multiplier over inputs, so the greater the measure of technology the greater the output. Quite a few of these also exhibt a characteristic where output drops if technology increases too fast. To illustrate this, imagine a scenario in real life that kind of looks like a rapid evolution of some kind of technology of home phones, to cell phones, to smart phones at a rate faster than people know how to make use of them, while also spending money adoption making the intermediary adoptions quite wasteful.

I think we see an aspect of this here, a lot of things we took for granted are changing, shared assumptions are being challenged and it's a period we're all relearning new things. To some extent spending too much time diving on the current iteration of AI tooling might be for nothing if gets invalidated by another sudden jump.

With all these new tools people are building, I can't help but feel they are building foundations on moving soil.


Replies

pydryyesterday at 1:24 PM

With the industrial revolution extra demand for industrial overcapacity was created in the form of war.

After the war the US created extra demand in the form of consumerism.

China is creating extra demand for infrastructure overcapacity with its belt and road initiative.

I wouldnt underestimate the abililty of the country to creatively create demand to counter oversupply.