> you're also trusting that the client's HTTP stack is parsing HTTP content correctly

This is an improvement: HTTP/1.1 alone is a trivial protocol, whereas the alternative is trusting the client's much more complicated TLS stack and its HTTP stack.

For technical reasons, unencrypted HTTP is also always the simpler (and for bulk transfers more performant) HTTP/1.1 in practice as standard HTTP/2 dictates TLS with the special non-TLS variant ("h2c") not being as commonly supported.

> for that matter, you're also trusting that the server (and any man-in-the-middle) is generating valid HTTP responses

You don't, just like you don't trust a TLS server to generate valid TLS (and tunneled HTTP) messages.

> you're also trusting that the client's response parser doesn't have a vulnerability (and not, say, ignoring some "missing closing bracket" or something)

You don't. Authentication 101 (which also applies to how TLS works), authenticity is always validated before inspecting or interacting with content. Same rules that TLS needs to follow when it authenticates its own messages.

Furthermore, TLS does nothing to protect you against a server delivering malicious files (e.g., a rogue maintainer or mirror intentionally giving you borked files).

> you're also trusting that the client is parsing the correct signature (and not, say, some other signature that was tacked-on later)

You don't, as the signature must be authentic from a trusted author (the specific maintainer of the specific package for example). The server or attacker is unable to craft valid signatures, so something "tacked-on" just gets rejected as invalid - just like if you mess with a TLS message.

> It's trivially easy to disassemble software to find vulnerabilities like those, though. So it's a lot of trust given for an untrusted software stack.

The basis of your trust is invalid and misplaced: Not only is TLS not providing additional security here, TLS is the more complex, fragile and historically vulnerable beast.

The only non-privacy risk of using non-TLS mirrors is that a MITM could keep serving you an old version of all your mirrors (which is valid and signed by the maintainers), withholding an update without you knowing. But, such MITM can also just fail your connection to a TLS mirror and then you also can't update, so no: it's just privacy.