alt Hacker News> Human drivers will be banned, the roads will be exclusively used by autonomous vehicles
I basically agree with your premise that public transit as it exists today will be rendered obsolete, but I think this point here is where your prediction hits a wall. I would be stunned if we agreed to eliminate human drivers from the road in my lifetime, or the lifetime of anyone alive today. Waymo is amazing, but still just at the beginning of the long tail.
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Is that:
- I would be stunned if we agree to eliminate human drivers from 100% of roads in the lifetime of anyone alive today.
or
- I would be stunned if we agree to eliminate human drivers from 10% of roads...
...or is there some other percentage to qualify this? I guess I wouldn't expect there to be a decree that makes it happen all at once for a country. Especially a large country like the U.S.. More like, some really dense city will decide to make a tiny core autonomous vehicles only, and then some other cities also do years later. And then maybe it expands to something larger than just the core after 5 or 10 years. And so on...
> I would be stunned if we agreed to eliminate human drivers from the road in my lifetime
It basically happened for horses.