A lot of more senior coders when they actively try vibe coding a greenfield project find that it does actually work. But only for the first ~10kloc. After that the AI, no matter how well you try to prompt it, will start to destroy existing features accidentally, will add unnecessary convoluted logic to the code, will leave benhind dead code, add random traces "for backwards compatibility", will avoid doing the correct thing as "it is too big of a refactor", doesn't understand that the dev database is not the prod database and avoids migrations. And so forth.
I've got 10+ years of coding experience, I am an AI advocate, but not vibe coding. AI is a great tool to help with the boring bits, using it to initialize files, help figure out various approaches, as a first pass code reviewer, helping with configuring, those things all work well.
But full-on replacing coders? It's not there yet. Will require an order of magnitude more improvement.
Where are you getting the 10kloc threshold from? Nice round number...
Surely it depends on the design. If you have 10 10kloc modular modules with good abstractions, and then a 10k shell gluing them together, you could build much bigger things, no?
I wonder if you can up the 10kloc if you have a good static analysis of your tool (I vibecoded one in Python) and good tests. Sometimes good tests aren't possible since there are too many different cases but with other forms of codes you can cover all the cases with like 50 to 100 tests or so
I agree with you in part, but I think the market is going to shift so that you won’t so many need “mega projects”. More and more, projects will be small and bespoke, built around what the team needs or answering a single question rather than forcing teams to work around an established, dominant solution.
You’re right, but on the other hand once you have a basic understanding security, architecture, etc you can prompt around these issues. You need a couple of years of experience but that’s far less then the 10-15 years of experience you needed in the past.
If you spend a couple of years with an LLM really watching and understanding what it’s doing and learning from mistakes, then you can get up the ladder very quickly.
Don't you think it has gotten an order of magnitude better in the last 1-2 years? If it only requires another an order of magnitude improvement to full-on replace coders, how long do you think that will take?
> only for the first ~10kloc. After that the AI, no matter how well you try to prompt it, will start to destroy existing features accidentally
I am using them in projects with >100kloc, this is not my experience.
at the moment, I am babysitting for any kloc, but I am sure they will get better and better.