alt Hacker News> one party was busy making “bets” on Kalshi
This would arguably be much more severe -- and quite likely already happening -- than the whole "congress trading stocks" thing because most of those (besides the sports ones) tie very directly to government actions in a way that the economy or a large company in generally doesn't as predictably.
Replies
nemomarx • yesterday at 4:42 PM
Isn't the whole idea of prediction markets to let insiders bet on things so that you'll get insider info leaked?
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usefulcat • yesterday at 7:44 PM
Yes and no. AIUI there's generally a lot less liquidity available in prediction markets, which limits the profitability.
Even if you have perfect clairvoyance, you still need someone to take the other side of the bet.
It's definitely already happening and should lead to a congressional inquiry if we had a functioning congress: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do