Maybe you should update your epistemology and stop listening to the guys that said so; I listen to the experts who say (since 2022) sanctions hurt, but russia is like a big tree - even if you poison it, it won't fall on the next day; it doesn't help that russia has disproportionately big spy network - people will take more abuse before they rebel against their government.
I think shevy was pointing out that some experts have assured us since before the war that sanctions can and will cripple Russia any day now.
Their epistemology doesn't need updating; the politicians fibbing need to be ridiculed.