https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o...
That info is from mid 2025, talking about models released in Oct 2024 and Feb 2025. It predates tools like Claude Code and Codex, Lovable was 1/3 current ARR, etc.
This might still be true but we desperately need new data.
Yeah new data would be great, but i feel like these tools are not substantively better and this is becoming the new "its different this time!"
None of those changes address the issue jdlshore is pointing out: self assessed developers productivity increases from LLMs are not a reliable indication of actual productivity increases. It's true that modern LLMs might have less of a negative impact on productivity or increase it, but you won't be able to tell by asking developers if they feel more productive.
(Also, Anthropic released Claude Code in Febuary of 2025, which was near the start of the period the study ran).