alt Hacker Newswell anecdotally from studying Japanese for about a year and a half before moving there, it seems right to me, in particular the part about conscious effort not being able to produce spontaneous speech.
I was embarrassed how little I could say after countless hours of flash cards and other methods. I'd literally just comprehend nothing if someone talked to me. But after a few months of just listening it became much easier. I've thrown all the Anki cards away afterwards, it was just a waste of time.
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It definitely wasn’t a waste of time! I passed JLPT N1 back in 2014 after ~6 years of mostly Anki-based studying. Did Heisig’s RtK first and then mostly played old Japanese console games that I was familiar with. Never opened a JLPT study guide and passed the test on my first attempt.
Could I speak Japanese at that point? No not really… I even had a Japanese spouse! But we spoke mostly English at home. I could read quite well, but conversation was very challenging.
Then we moved to Japan. Despite not having a job that requires me to speak Japanese, I got enough live exposure just from chatting with people at the gym or in social activities that now, a few years later, I’ve backfilled all that conversational fluency that was missing. No special extra effort required, just living in an environment where I used the language reasonably often.
Anyways, the point is that all the time spent in Anki laid a rock-solid foundation that merely needed activation in the right environment for active fluency to emerge. Of course I no longer do my daily flashcard drills (and I’ve forgotten how to write quite a few kanji as a result) but the work paid off.
I realised a step up with going to lunch with Japanese friends where the stream of sounds started to become comprehensible as discrete words. When I understood some of them I at least grasped the topic of the conversation, though not the details. It takes time and patience...