alt Hacker NewsCan anybody predict this craze? The classical memory manufacturers are not yet adding additional manufacturing capacity. They learned this hard way in the past. That means, the demand is here to stay for years without typical bubble burst. Is this a point where Chinese companies will rise worldwide?
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mv4 • today at 1:34 PM
Hard to predict. If the bubble pops (NVIDIA and "circular economy", massive FAANG datacenter expansion plans, huge LLM training budgets) the markets will once again be flooded with components.
But, the shortages may very well continue into 2027, leading to some manufacturers going out of business and yet another massive redistribution of wealth.
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The massive DC overbuild matches demand, prices normalise somewhat in 3-5 years.
The massive DC overbuild does not match demand, prices tank in 3-5 years.
Third possibility: some approach like Taalas renders the current storyline meaningless. Would put 3 in 10 odds of this happening but I'd looove to see it.
Fourth: entire planet gets profoundly sick of emdashes, we all move back into caves and live in eternal gratitude of the moment humanity woke up to how little all of this really matters.