I don't think it makes sense to consider top % of the talent - relative to the total amount of engineers I imagine it would be minuscule.
It's the rest who will have to deal with shrinking number of positions, higher competition and possibly decrease in compensation due to said competition.
Unfortunately agreed, i see swe (already) going the way of finance
most jobs are okay comp 9-6s with a small group of elite talent making extremely outsized comp
more emphasis on pedigree, exclusive hiring pipelines from top schools