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davidwtoday at 12:19 AM1 replyview on HN

I am less confident about my predictions for an uncertain future. There's all kinds of ways different things could go.

I didn't say we needed to follow their example to the letter; it was just one counterexample to the "woe and ruin for 100 years" comment.


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Fischgerichttoday at 12:30 AM

Yes, but it is actually scientifically correct and proven on all sorts of layers. Biology, Maths, whatever. Not doomsdaying, just data analytics.

Societies are not operating like a sinus curve like say summer/winter cycles. They are upside-down "U"s. After the peak comes decline, but after the decline there is NOT recovery/growth again before you have a reset.

Germany was the huge winner of WW2 in the sense that after having had a high society they directly were allowed to get another such run. But as nobody wants to bomb us ) anymore, Germany is also in decline now waiting for a reset to come one day...

Sadly the USA will also need a reset before things can begin getting better again.

) I was born in Germany and lived there for 40 years.

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