alt Hacker NewsInsider trading is so trivial on the prediction markets. I'd guess that it's actually the "feature" that results in the outcomes being so accurate.
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Prediction markets are probably most "accurate" when at least some participants have genuinely superior information
Yes and no.
If you see prediction markets as how they were originally pitched (price ~approximating likelihood), then insider trading is good. It provides discovery.
If you look at what prediction markets are today (gambling, especially on sports, especially in states that have banned it), then insider trading is bad. Particularly when the people trading can influence the outcome (e.g. a pitcher purposefully throwing into the dirt.)
Of course. The point is not to make individual players money (that does sometimes happen as a side effect) it's to leverage their greed to find truth.
Yup. There are good reasons why it's a problem in financial markets but NOT usually a problem in prediction markets:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/02/18/why-insider-tra...
> In prediction markets, informed trading is not a crime or an injustice—it is a valuable service.
A big exception, however, is using prediction markets to make predictions on events regarding publicly traded companies.