Isn't insider trading on a prediction market only wrong to the extent the insider is violating some duty of secrecy to the company?

And isn't that just between them and their company in a case-by-case sense?

If there was some valuable-to-the-public information that the company did not care about keeping private but just hadn't bothered to make public, for whatever reason, and an insider traded on it on a prediction market, that would only benefit the public's interest in information and would not violate any duty to the company. It'd be a pure win for everyone.

It seems unfair to other traders, the way it would be in the stock market, but in prediction markets (unlike the stock market) all participants are explicitly taking on the risk that somebody else might have better access to information than they do. So it's not subverting the system in the way we have decided it does in stock markets.

A lot of commenters are getting the wrong take here by looking at this like it's a stock market where there is some society-level interest in giving participants protection from having less information than insiders. It's just a different thing.

Could also make a case for incentivizing destructive actions by insiders as well. You’re saying I could sabotage my project and make a quick buck?

Excuse me it's called price discovery.

Yeah, Polymarket is explicitly advertising this.

>Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. Traders aggregate news, polls, and expert opinions, making informed trades. Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join.

>If you’re an expert on a certain topic, Polymarket is your opportunity to profit from trading based on your knowledge, while improving the market’s accuracy.

You know what's a great knowledgeable participant? An insider.