alt Hacker NewsAnyone who's followed the news since the 2000s would have realized a strike on Iran would have happened around now.
Notice how the bettor hedged and bet on multiple days and hedged each of their bets with a "by" clause. This is a bog standard hedging strategy that anyone who's been to a racetrack would know.
On a separate note, gamified prediction markets should not exist - they create perverse incentives and are basically a gamification of futures contracts (which requires a degree of risk management and hedging experience the median individual simply lacks), but this specific example doesn't seem like insider trading, just a seasoned gambler who knows basic hedging strategy.
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> prediction markets should not exist
If you don't like prediction markets, you don't have to use them.
Why do you think other people shouldn't be allowed to use prediction markets if they want to?
No they were not hedging they were seeking liquidity because they couldnt get a total fill and ROI in the lowest probability market
> this specific example doesn't seem like insider trading, just a seasoned gambler who knows basic hedging strategy.
why can't it be both? you think degenerate gamblers have never had a government job?