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avaer • yesterday at 8:00 PM • 1 reply • view on HN

Prediction was certainly the pitch. I don't know how many people genuinely believed it, beyond the level required to extract a profit.

It's hard to measure what anyone actually believes in the current social landscape, where nobody tells the truth. Maybe that's the real purpose of prediction markets.

Replies

godelski • yesterday at 10:18 PM

I remember people claiming that it would capture the wisdom of the crowds[0]. Seemed silly as wisdom of the crowds depends on independent decisions. As soon as you reveal other people's guesses you bias the results.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

Edit:

Actually, turns out "people claiming" includes Polymarket lol

  # What is Polymarket
  ...
  Our markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth.

  # How accurate are Polymarket odds?

  Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. .... Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join.
 
  This makes prediction markets the best source of real-time event probabilities. People use Polymarket for the most accurate odds, gaining the ability to make informed decisions about the future.
What a load of BS. "Research shows"? Bull!

https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-pol...