> You need minimum 24GB VRAM to load up a model. 32GB to be safe, and this isnt even frontier, but bare minimum.

Indeed.

But they said 5 years. That's certainly plausible for high-end mobile devices in Jan 2031.

I have high uncertainty on if distillation will get Opus 4.6-level performance into that RAM envelope, but something interesting on device even if not that specifically, is certainly within the realm of plausibility.

Not convinced Apple gets any bonus points in this scenario, though.