History really doesn’t say otherwise. Tensions were mostly cooling after the Obama nuclear deal.

Now the message we’ve told the world is: If you don’t want to eventually be at risk of the US attacking you, you better be nuclear armed.

History does not say otherwise. The US however has a history of attacking Iran, including murdering 190 people on a civilian flight: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

History doesn't say anything, because there is no precedence Iran attacking the US assets first.

Iran has never carried out an attack against US military infrastructure that wasn't clearly retaliatory.

Look it up. Every case of Iran attacking US infrastructure has been in direct retaliation to the US blowing up some Iranian stuff.

Sure Iran has funded tons of proxy attacks by anonymous militias but these are generally not at the same kind of scale.