The main cost with on-prem is not the price of the gear but the price of acquiring talent to manage the gear. Most companies simply don't have the skillset internally to properly manage these servers, or even the internal talent to know whether they are hiring a good infrastructure engineer or not during the interview process.
For those that do, your scaling example works against you. If today you can merge three services into one, then why do you need full time infrastructure staff to manage so few servers? And remember, you want 24/7 monitoring, replication for disaster recovery, etc. Most businesses do not have IT infrastructure as a core skill or differentiator, and so they want to farm it out.
This factually did not play out like this in my experience.
The company did need the same exact people to manage AWS anyway. And the cost difference was so high that it was possible to hire 5 more people which wasn't needed anyway.
Not only the cost but not needing to worry about going over the bandwidth limit and having soo much extra compute power made a very big difference.
Imo the cloud stuff is just too full of itself if you are trying to solve a problem that requires compute like hosting databases or similar. Just renting a machine from a provider like Hetzner and starting from there is the best option by far.
You need the exact same people to run the infra in the cloud. If they don't have IT at all, they aren't spinning up cloud VMs. You're mixing together SaaS and actual cloud infra.
This is not the case. We had to double staff count going from three cages to AWS. And AWS was a lot more expensive. And now we're stuck.
On top of that no one really knows what the fuck they are doing in AWS anyway.
> The main cost with on-prem is not the price of the gear but the price of acquiring talent to manage the gear. Most companies simply don't have the skillset internally to properly manage these servers, or even the internal talent to know whether they are hiring a good infrastructure engineer or not during the interview process.
That's partially true; managing cloud also takes skill, most people forget that with end result being "well we saved on hiring sysadmins, but had to have more devops guys". Hell I manage mostly physical infrastructure (few racks, few hundred VMs) and good 80% of my work is completely unrelated to that, it's just the devops gluing stuff together and helping developers to set their stuff up, which isn't all that different than it would be in cloud.
> And remember, you want 24/7 monitoring, replication for disaster recovery, etc.
And remember, you need that for cloud too. Plenty of cloud disaster stories to see where they copy pasted some tutorial thinking that's enough then surprise.
There is also partial way of just getting some dedicated servers from say OVH and run infra on that, you cut out a bit of the hardware management from skillset and you don't have the CAPEX to deal with.
But yes, if it is less than at least a rack, it's probably not worth looking for onprem unless you have really specific use case that is much cheaper there (I mean less than usual half)
As opposed to talent to manage the AWS? Sorry, AWS loses here as well.
> price of acquiring talent to manage the gear
Is it still a problem in 2026 when unemployment in IT is rising? Reasons can be argued (the end of ZIRP or AI) but hiring should be easier than it was at any time during the last 10 years.
What about the cost of k8s and AWS experts etc.?
> main cost with on-prem is not the price of the gear but the price of acquiring talent to manage the gear
Not quite. If you hire a bad talent to manage your 'cloud gear' then you would find what the mistakes which would cost you nothing on-premises would cost you in the cloud. Sometimes - a lot.
Managing AWS is a ton of work anyway
Given how good Apple Silicon is these days, why not just buy a spec'd out Mac Studio (or a few) for $15k (512 GB RAM, 8 TB NVMe), maybe pay for S3 only to sync data across machines. No talent required to manage the gear. AWS EC2 costs for similar hardware would net out in something ridiculous like 4 months.
> even the internal talent to know whether they are hiring a good infrastructure engineer or not during the interview process.
This is really the core problem. Every time I’ve done the math on a sizable cloud vs on-prem deployment, there is so much money left on the table that the orgs can afford to pay FAANG-level salaries for several good SREs but never have we been able to find people to fill the roles or even know if we had found them.
The numbers are so much worse now with GPUs. The cost of reserved instances (let alone on-demand) for an 8x H100 pod even with NVIDIA Enterprise licenses included leaves tens of thousands per pod for the salary of employees managing it. Assuming one SREs can manage at least four racks the hardware pays for itself, if you can find even a single qualified person.