alt Hacker NewsPeople spend entire careers doing these types of analyses, so my off-the-cuff comment will always be amateurish in comparison. But here goes anyway, some examples of blunders that come from a place of arrogance, or being overeager to hit the “defect” button:
- Various Roman emperors overextending and destroying what their predecessors slowly built
- Indigenous peoples (especially the Americas) allying with colonial forces to defeat other indigenous enemies (won the battle, lost the war)
- Brexit
- Perhaps the most documented regime of all time, 1930s and 40s Germany. Specific event? The eastern offensive
- Royal lineages have plenty of examples, like Louis XVI
Those seem like over-ambition or hindsight, which is different than constantly, intentionally doing things in a way that will fail.
The indiginous people's choices can't be understood without knowing their political context in regard to other indigenous people and the colonial powers.