alt Hacker News“ If models stopped advancing today, we could still reach effective AGI with years of refining harnesses.”
Unless you’re a machine learning engineer with something to share, our current models are not even close to general AGI, and won’t make it.
My understanding (as just an engineer) is that LLMs continue to improve at crazy rates, but it’s clear this is not the answer for AGI.
I think if I asked for most HN users' requirements for AGI 8 years ago, we would already be well past them. Now that we see the nature of how artificial intelligence is unfolding, and how the intelligence is different than human intelligence, everyone is moving their goalposts (including me).
But if we're being honest, frontier LLMs are effectively more intelligent than a non-negligible proportion of the population (for example, at pretty much all white collar IC work, pattern matching, problem solving, etc.). And in the ways that most people are still smarter (having sentience/emotions/desires that drive us to take initiative toward meaningful goals), I think it's great that AI does not match us there, but also doesn't disqualify it from being intelligent. The harness can bridge the gap there.