alt Hacker NewsAlso supply will only increase if producers believe the current level of demand is going to be sustainable in the long term. Which I don't think anyone really believes.
The same way nobody wanted to invest in mask supply in the US or Western Europe during covid, because producers knew the demand spike wouldn't last and they'll be left with useless equipment to pay after the crisis passed.
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Correct, but if they're right in that belief then it's still just a matter of time before demand goes down and the shortage is solved.
If they're wrong and this is actually a permanent spike in demand, then it'll take the industry a while to realize it but eventually they'll collectively figure it out and increase supply. The ones who figure it out soonest and increase supply fastest will profit the most. The ones who figure it out slowest will lose market share.
> demand is going to be sustainable in the long term. Which I don't think anyone really believes.
I am one who think there is a chance it will sustain. AI is useful tool, Opus unlocks N times productivity gain for devs since Opus 4.5, which is available just for 3 months.
This means adaptation is just started, it could expand on all kind of usecases, niches, solving problems, products, etc, which could be N times more demand for compute from what we have now.