I think what you are describing is technically possible (not my immediate domain, however). They don't have real-time insight into what the model is being used for, you are correct about this afaik. But the incident that kicked off this paranoia was Anthopic calling around after the fact to try to find out how JSOC was using the model during the Maduro raid. None of the context of those questions are public, and I doubt they will become public, but it stands to reason that the nature of the questions was concerning enough for the War Department to cause them insist on the "any lawful use" language to be inserted into the contract.

>The whole 'do not use our models for mass surveillance' is at the end of the day an honor system. Companies have no real way of enforcing that clause, or determining that it has been violated.

You are also correct here imo, with one important caveat. Even if private companies have the means for enforcing that clause, it is not their business to do so. Maybe that's the crux of the problem, one of perspective. The for-profit entity in these arrangements is not and can never be trusted as the mechanism of enforcement for whatever we, as a republic, decide are the rules. That is the realm of elected government. Anthropic employees are certainly making their voice heard on how they believe these tools should be used, but, again, this is an is versus ought problem for them.