Maybe, but I distinctly remember the numbers 15 up to 30k two weeks ago from the UN Iran watchdog.

Then a week ago, a US-based watchdog let the number 35k float, and all of the sudden that's the number used by US department of state. And now the number you just threw is 40k.

Meanwhile, the OSINT community confirmed deaths are still around 15k. I will admit, the bombing doesn't help because we cross data from funerals and morgues/hospitals, and now we will have to distinguish bombing victims from repression victims, which in some areas (southeast and west mostly) is difficult.