It's a shame, too, because they are right about the hydrocarbon input price effects, but speculative in a bizarre way elsewhere. Germany had a selection of strategic hydrocarbon options in the 2000s and fumbled by picking the option that would later prove to launch revisionary wars that interrupt their export capability.

Even if we lived in an alternate timeline where the US was completely supportive of the 2022 invasion at the time, Germany would still be surrounded on all sides by countries with a vested interest in pointing nuclear deterrents at Moscow and lose their energy feed in the same way.