alt Hacker NewsWhenever I see claims about AGI being reachable through large language models, it reminds me of the miasma theory of disease. Many respectable medical professionals were convinced this was true, and they viewed the entire world through this lens. They interpreted data in ways that aligned with a miasmatic view.
Of course now we know this was delusional and it seems almost funny in retrospect. I feel the same way when I hear that 'just scale language models' suddenly created something that's true AGI, indistinguishable from human intelligence.
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The miasma theory of disease, though wrong, made lots of predictions that proved useful and productive. Swamps smell bad, so drain them; malaria decreases. Excrement in the street smells bad, so build sewage systems; cholera decreases. Florence Nightingale implemented sanitary improvements in hospitals inspired by miasma theory that improved outcomes.
It was empirical and, though ultimately wrong, useful. Apply as you will to theories of learning.
> Whenever I see claims about AGI being reachable through large language models, it reminds me of the miasma theory of disease.
Whenever I see people think the model architecture matters much, I think they have a magical view of AI. Progress comes from high quality data, the models are good as they are now. Of course you can still improve the models, but you get much more upside from data, or even better - from interactive environments. The path to AGI is not based on pure thinking, it's based on scaling interaction.
To remain in the same miasma theory of disease analogy, if you think architecture is the key, then look at how humans dealt with pandemics... Black Death in the 14th century killed half of Europe, and none could think of the germ theory of disease. Think about it - it was as desperate a situation as it gets, and none had the simple spark to keep hygiene.
The fact is we are also not smart from the brain alone, we are smart from our experience. Interaction and environment are the scaffolds of intelligence, not the model. For example 1B users do more for an AI company than a better model, they act like human in the loop curators of LLM work.