Yeah, that claim was always ludicrous to me too. Wisdom-of-crowds isn’t an unbiased decision making strategy, it’s quite biased. Crowd-wisdom works best as a limiter on the bias of other decision making strategies—this is why democracies use representatives rather than direct votes for most decisions.

And polymarket isn’t even the wisdom of crowds lol. At its greatest possible adoption it’s still the wisdom of internet-connected (mostly) white men with time and money to spend on gambling.

Ugh, the sophistry (or at least self-deceiving arguments) people throw around to defend these markets makes my stomach churn.

I don't know, man, looks like we are now literally gambling on whether people die today or tomorrow. This is even worse than underground sports gambling.

Reply of the year. I'm not sure if I'm supposed to laugh or cry.

The question isn't whether futarchy isn't perfect, it's whether its better than our existing democracy.