The question is if the Chinese support for Russia can be broken, by economical incentive or threat.

generic92034 • yesterday at 10:09 PM • 1 reply • view on HN

But anyway, over short or long the EU needs to build its own military to a strength it can at least work as a strong deterrence for aggressors.

Replies

alephnerd • yesterday at 10:30 PM

> if the Chinese support for Russia can be broken, by economical incentive...

China is not interested in breaking with Russia.

Russia helps China put pressure on Japan [0], helps China put pressure on South Korea [1], allows China to expand it's influence in Central Asia [2], acts as a backchannel for China-India diplomatic normalization [3], gives China the ability to access ONG without dealing with Hormuz or Malaccas [4], and allows China to run the Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe railway [5] which continues to supply Europe with no sanctions despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.

On the other hand, the EU is tariffing Chinese goods [6]; signing FTAs with Chinese rivals like India [7], Japan [8], and South Korea [9]; and signing defense pacts with Japan [10], South Korea [11], and India [12] while allowing them to participate in ReArm Europe 2030.

Additionally, China-EU trade only represents a little over 10% of all Chinese trade [13], and is easily replaceable with expanded trade with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and India.

China views Russia the same way America views the EU - a weak junior partner who can be bullied. The US is somewhat trying to pull Russia to our side, and China is somewhat trying to pull the EU to their side, but the reality is both the US and China view the EU and Russia as junior partners.

> the Chinese support for Russia can be broken, by ... threat

What threat can the EU give to China? Chinese foreign policy already views the EU as sanctimonious [14], weak [15], and declining [16].

> over short or long the EU needs to build its own military to a strength it can at least work as a strong deterrence for aggressors

Yep.

But that will takes decades, which is why the US and China can both bully the EU with complete impunity today.

Heck, both China [17] and the US under Trump [18] are supporting Viktor Orban because he is a great Trojan horse.

Whenever either the US or China feels the EU is leaning towards one at the expense of the other, they then start breaking EU institutions as a result.

THIS is the world the EU exists in today.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-b...

[1] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxq38028djo

[2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china-looks-strengthen-ties-ru...

[3] - https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/10/23/how-russia-emerged-as-k...

[4] - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3345920/m...

[5] - https://carnegie.ru/commentary/?fa=64555

[6] - https://www.ft.com/content/eb677cb3-f86c-42de-b819-277bcb042...

[7] - https://commission.europa.eu/topics/trade/eu-india-trade-agr...

[8] - https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-j...

[9] - https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-s...

[10] - https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_00703.h...