Someone with the ability to register .gov domains is trying to make a sneaky buck.

That's just gambling without any basis for reality though. Not sure if you're actually attributing any weight to random gamblers lol.

Taking the opposite side of this bet feels like a free 19% return on your money.

Ah, the wisdom of the crowds (of gamblers.)

We know for a fact that the US government has no evidence of aliens existing, because there's a 0% chance Trump wouldn't have blabbed about it during his first term.