At a glance, I'm a bit skeptical. It looks like they're cherry picking the high point for rent (the COVID spike).
> "Rents fell. In December 2021, Austin’s median rent was $1,546, near its highest level ever and 15% higher than the U.S. median ($1,346)."
Of course having more housing should, all things equal, lower rent. But all things certainly weren't equal, especially during this time period.
If you just compare it to other cities you can see that Austin did much better in prices.
Idk about rent, but even as of a year or two ago, Austin metro housing index was lower than its 2016 level. Rent following a similar trajectory wouldn't be super surprising to me.
You haven't factored in Inflation.
> In December 2021, Austin’s median rent was $1,546, near its highest level ever and 15% higher than the U.S. median ($1,346). By January 2026, Austin’s median rent had fallen to $1,296, 4% lower than that of the U.S. overall ($1,353).
For comparison, in San Francisco December 2021, the median one bedroom was $2810. In San Francisco March 2026, it was $3597, an increase of 28%.