> The New Pundits have been around long enough, and are widely known enough, that their relevant books have collectively sold millions of copies and are taught in virtually all university entrepreneurship courses.[4] If they worked, it would show up in the statistics. Instead, there has been zero systematic progress over the past 30 years in making startups more likely to survive.
For me, this is where it breaks. There are two assumptions that the author must be challenged on.
1. Enough people know about these methods
2. Of those people enough use the methods properly
Judging from my own experience I can’t confirm neither of these. Even those people that know the approach rarely have the rigor to treat startups as a series of experiments. Ego plays a large part.
I mean, there's also 3: once everyone knows something then they're all fighting with the same sword.
These startup techniques were never meant to guarantee success - they were just meant to be techniques to use to more quickly and cheaply get you to the point where you can understand if the hypothesis is correct in the market (and to then make that evaluation more correctly).