Two things can be true at the same time:
- AI is a genuinely transformative technology on par with the internet and on track to probably surpass the smartphone
- The inflated valuations, the circular flows of money (or "money"), and the financial cup-shell game mean that the players of the game are all a few bad weeks away from catastrophe. This is, of course, nothing new for SV -- but the scale this time is new. Some believe it will soon collapse -- "bubble," thus.
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Yes. Both things can be true at the same time.
The question is when will the frontier AI companies turn a profit on said transformative technology since other than NVIDIA and big tech, it is losing them tens of billions and who will survive a crash when it comes.
This is when you know you are in a bubble when people with a clear financial incentive are going on to newsletters, podcasts and posting extremely outlandish predictions to sell the public on something.
The amount of engineers becoming snake-oil salesmen and vibe-coders becoming cybersecurity experts overnight selling AI courses is a good indicator which I am looking at.