I don't think it's winner-takes-all. Google is Google in 2026 because Lycos and AskJeeves were bad in comparison. The average user doesn't care whose LLM they're using because they're all close enough. It's hard to see past the bubble bursting, but I expect most people will use multiple of them depending on context (Copilot via the integration in windows, Gemini via Siri on their phone, etc), likely without paying.