logoalt Hacker News

KaiserProtoday at 1:53 PM1 replyview on HN

The problem with these kind of posts is that "How" is almost useless, I can tell you how the bubble pops: The value of these AI companies crash and take out a lots of other stuff with it.

The interesting questions are: "What triggers it" and "what also goes tits up"?

The issue with high/international finance is that a good percentage of it (if not more) is fraudulent or semi fraudulent bollocks.

"Here is a startup that is worth x million because y" Both of those statements are bollocks. However its in the interest of most people to agree with that bollocks to get money. If enough money is given there is a chance that the startup will make money.

If we look a few year back, NFTs fulfil that niche quite nicely. It was obviously bollocks, but a very convenient way to launder money, or run a series of rugpull operations.

The problem we have to contend with now is that the sheer amount money that has been invested all disappearing at once would require 2007/8 levels of coordination to unfuck. The US government does not have the requisite number of admins to pull that off again, and no political will to ever have that expertise again. So if AI does go pop, and it takes a lot of money with it, I would put a guess on china doing the money lubrication and extracting a subtle but richly ironic level of control in exchange

Also, its no guarantee that AI will trigger the next bubble popping, my money is on Private Equity.


Replies

martinvoltoday at 1:57 PM

> The problem with these kind of posts is that "How" is almost useless, I can tell you how the bubble pops: The value of these AI companies crash and take out a lots of other stuff with it.

That's like saying "I know exactly how you're going to die, your heart will stop"