> Taking this into account, Google is extremely well positioned to weather the storm. When they announce capex expenditure, they don’t spend it overnight. They can simply deploy month by month until their competitors struggle to raise and get forced to capitulate. At that point they can just ramp down the spending and declare victory in a cornered market. They don’t need capex, they just need to make it very clear for everyone that nobody can outspend them.

Have you tried Gemini 3.1 lately? It is not even close to Opus 4.6 never mind Claude 5.

This post, like many pessimistic takes, seriously discounts innovation and the exponential takeoff of recursive self-improvement.