alt Hacker NewsI feel like some of the data in this is horrendously out of date. They're referencing articles from the end of 2024.
There was a massive step-change in the capability of these models towards the end of 2025.
There is just no way that an experienced developer should be slower using the current tools. Doesn't match my experience at all.
The title of the article, though - absolutely true IMO
Yeah…
> For tasks that would take a human under four minutes—small bug fixes, boilerplate, simple implementations—AI can now do these with near-100% success. For tasks that would take a human around one hour, AI has a roughly 50% success rate. For tasks over four hours, it comes in below a 10% success rate
Opus 4.6 now does 12hr tasks with 50% success. The METR time horizon chart is insane… exponential progression.