> the common advice is to use a firewall rule that disallows incoming connections by default.

That's good advice! But firewall hole punching is also significantly easier (and guaranteed to work) compared to NAT hole punching. Address discovery is part of it, but there are various ways to implement a NAT (some inherently un-hole-punch-able) and only really one sane way to do a firewall.

> you'd need the average person to mess with their router configuration,

At least with IPv6, that firewall is likely to exist in the CPE, which sophisticated users can then ideally open ports in (or which can implement UPnP/NAT-PMP or whatever the current name for the "open this port now!!" protocol of the decade is); for CG-NAT, it's often outright impossible.