> I simply don’t see how a non-expert can look at what the experts are saying, and decide “I know better, there is in fact < 1% chance.” Remember that you are betting with your users’ lives.

Problem is the experts don't tell the truth, they say whatever game theory version of the world they came up with will make people do what they think people should do. If experts just said the literal truth it'd be different, and then when they would walk it back would be understandable.

But when later it becomes clear the experts said outright lies because they thought it'd induce the right behavior, that goes out the window.