I think you're missing the point. Effort is a moat now because centaurs (human+AI) still beat AIs, but that gap gets smaller every year (and will ostensibly be closed).
The goal is to replicate human labor, and they're closing that gap. Once they do (maybe decades, but probably will happen), then only that "special something" will remain. Taste, vision... We shall all become Rick Rubins.
Until 2045, when they ship RubinGPT
> but that gap gets smaller every year (and will ostensibly be closed)
As long as you build software for humans (and all software we build is for humans, ultimately), you'll need humans at the helm to steer the ship towards a human-friendly solution.
do you need taste if you can massively parallel a/b test your way to something that is tasteful? say like you take your datacenter of geniuses and have a a rubin-loop supervising testing different directions. shouldn't that be close enough?
I imagine that the gap with current work can largely be closed, but are we really confident that this will hold with the new work that pops up? Increasingly I think we’re lacking imagination as to what work can be in a post AI world. I.e. could an abacus wielder imagine all the post computer jobs?