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daft_pinktoday at 8:12 PM1 replyview on HN

Just want to reiterate that prediction markets are beneficial, because they are the most accurate way to provide us with a dynamic mechanism to predict future outcomes from complicated systems.

As was put forth in James Suroweicki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets provide predictions that tend to be more accurate than any expert, team of experts, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% accurate, but it tends to be more accurate than any other mechanism that we have.

The benefit is not that gamblers have a place to gamble, but that society has a way to gauge the risks of different outcomes and plan accordingly.


Replies

Peritracttoday at 8:28 PM

I'm not sure 'have a benefit' maps directly to 'are beneficial'. You also have to consider the downsides, such as people with influence deliberately causing X event to happen (e.g. a war) so that they can profit.

I'm not sure the increased predictability is worth the increased instability.