You're thinking like an engineer and making the laughable assumption that "prediction markets" are markets. It's totally unregulated with all sorts of grifts and cheats. One of the platforms was promoting a high-return bet against Rory at the Masters yesterday.

You can make money off of all sorts of stuff. You can "sell" the bets, so there's lots of live pump and dump.

We've gone full circle. The bookie with no neck that smelled like onions was more honest than these platforms.