Yes exactly.

The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme.

73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though.

There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science

https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

> They admit no returns.

So it's not a useful trading strategy. Good to know.

It might have worked out that the human tendency towards optimism biased the Yes side, but Polymarket is watched closely enough by traders that the pricing is apparently realistic.

Now if you could bet against minor crypto coins, which almost always go down... But if you could, there would be traders pricing them realistically. Everybody has analytics now, and mispriced markets are detected and exploited quickly.

When people do find an edge they tend not to share it ;)

It must be true that more markets resolve to no than yes because many markets are linked and only have one winner. (ie. if there are 10 people in the race for who will be the next president, 9 will resolve to no)

"just funny meme backed code"

I laughed. That's inspired. Quite the nerd-snipe as well, based on the rapidly accumulating threads on effectiveness, probabilities and markets.